Some analysts have already estimated that oil price might rise as high as $200 per barrel. Do you personally think we will see it reaching that mark? Please give your reasons why you think it will or will not.

i dont think it will..
its to much..
the economy is not stron enough for such a raise..
ppl will face problems

definitly
if you are looking at the price chart, you see a rapid increase and there are not many signs for an oposite direction
maybe not this year(cause of recession), but summer-autumn 2009 is my prediction
maybe its even going to top that if alot of 1Liter cars are going to be sold(once they are on the market of course)

ahh do you mean will it EVER reach..?
well sure..but not this year like jack said..
maybe 09 or 10

in austria at least, the boss of the largest gas stations (OMV) has declared, that he is seeing an end for the steadily increasing oil prices - but only because the consumtion is decreasing

I recently read an article suggesting that the analysts are completely split into 2 camps on the matter:

Camp 1: 200$/barrel
Initially predicted by Goldman Sachs; the same guy that way back when said it would hit over 100$ and people laughed at him. He coined the tern "Spuer Spike" which is now used.

Camp 2: approx 80$/barrel
They say that oil prices are artificially inflated and that once the super spike peaks (which should be by year's end), the prices will dop to their 'normal' value of about 80$/barrel.


.... now, I'd love to think that the camp 2 folks are right, but somehow I don't see that happening.

... then again, I know **** all about crude oil futures pricing.



One thing's for sure... in a 200$/barrel world economy, we're all ****ed!

My cousin's a market analyst of sorts, he says oil prices will eventually drop below $100/barrel as it follows a systematic cycle of supply and demand. Not to go into the details because I can hardly remember most of what he said, but he gave me some hope there for lower oil prices. Hope it's true.

thats why it won't reach the 200dollar barrier this year
we are close to a recession - people are low on money, economy is in a bad condition, due to this fact people don't buy as much crued oil - so oil companies have to reduce the price to make it effordable again
but with the next boom, oil price could actually reach the 200 barrier
at least this is my conclusion

As someone in the industry, I will say it depends.
It depends on the following factors:

1. Price of basic metals(Iron,Chromium,Copper,Aluminium,Nickel,Titan ium,Tungsten) which have quadrupled over the last 3 1/2 years
2. Weakness of the US$ based on structural weakness:

• Massive federal deficit
• Massive trade deficit

3. Tight supply in the market, and OPEC honestly lacks the capacity to increase production.

4. Geo-political risk due to the tension in the middle east. The military conflict on IRAQ(which adds to the federal deficit), and the saber-rattling towards the Iranians. The uncertainty in Nigeria and Venezuela

5. Increase in demand due to increasing middle class in China and India.

When we do witness a reversal in any of the above, that will signal the beginning of the decline of the price of oil.

interesting to know that the price now is 6 times higher than early 2002.